AISIX Solutions Inc., a Vancouver-based AI-driven climate analytics company, has listed two parks in the East Kootenay among their top ten Canadian national parks at risk of wildfire.
Kootenay National Park is number one on the company’s list, while Yoho National Park is at number three.
Parks in B.C. make up 50 per cent of their list and all but one of the top five slots.
Dr. Gio Roberti, AISIX’s Head of Product, says the company’s data comes by examining historical conditions and using artificial intelligence (AI) simulations to predict what might happen in the future.
“We have developed country-wide burn probability data, maps and models. To produce this data, we used fuel distribution, probabilities of ignition – using human and lightning-started probabilities, and we model weather conditions in the past and into the future,” said Roberti.
“Then, we simulate millions of fires and we see how they might spread across the landscape given the topography, fuel, wind, temperature, et cetera.”
Roberti says they combine that data to draw up 30-year burn probability maps.
“These maps give us an idea of current and future burn probabilities,” said Roberti.
“As climate change is happening, we see that temperatures are higher and fire season is longer, so we see that, overall, the likelihood of large fires and fires in general is increasing.”
Roberti says this kind of mapping has a broad range of applications.
“Knowing burn probability is informative in terms of long-term planning. We also look at fire intensity, which can help calculate potential losses and damage to structures,” said Roberti.
“These also highlight locations where fuel treatments and wildfire risk mitigation measures might be needed to prioritize. In general, this sort of information is hard to get in Canada.”
Roberti says the information produced by AISIX’s simulations can be useful for public and private entities.
“In general, this data is used for emergency management purposes, but also long-term planning by a variety of stakeholders like insurance and banking and other private businesses may want to use this information to assess their risk of exposure,” said Roberti.
You can see AISIX’s ranking of Canada’s top 10 national parks at risk of wildfire below. The company says the ranking is calculated based on burn probability, burn probability increase and popularity.
- Kootenay National Park – British Columbia
- Mount Revelstoke National Park – British Columbia
- Yoho National Park – British Columbia
- Glacier National Park – British Columbia
- La Mauricie National Park – Quebec
- Banff National Park – Alberta
- Jasper National Park – Alberta
- Waterton Lakes National Park – Alberta
- Pacific Rim National Park Reserve – British Columbia
- Kluane National Park and Reserve – Yukon
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